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Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 31 – September 4, 2015)

Aug 29, 2015 09:48 pm
analyst75 User

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Зарегистрирован: 22/11/2014

Here’s the market outlook for the week:



Dominant bias: Bullish

Last week witnessed the greatest volatility in the markets since January 15, 2015. Between August 19 – 24, price went upwards by 680 pips, topping at the resistance line of 1.1700. Immediately the resistance line was tested, price began to retrace steadily and gradually. From the weekly high of 1.1700, price has gone downwards by 520 pips; thereby threatening the recent bullish bias. The threat to the bullish bias is so serious that a movement below the support line at 1.1100 would ultimately result in a bearish outlook.



Dominant bias: Bearish   

From August 19 – 24, this pair plunged by 500 pips in what can be called the biggest USDCHF move in the last few months. From August 25 till now, price has nevertheless, rallied by over 300 pips, which is another threat to the existing bearish outlook on the market. In case price goes above the resistance level at 0.9700, things would turn cleanly bullish; whereas failure to do that could strengthen the existing bearish outlook. Since the outlook on CHF is bearish for the month of September, bulls would be having some difficulties pushing USDCHF upwards.



Dominant bias: Bearish    

When the hope of a weak GBPUSD was almost dashed for the month of August 2015, the pair eventually became weak. This formerly trudging pair managed to test the distribution territory at 1.5800 before bulls lost all their power. From that distribution territory, price nosedived by 450 pips, reaching the accumulation territory at 1.5350. This means that bears are the overall winners on GBPUSD in the month of August, since their action overturned all the bullish gains for the month. In September, we will see very serious volatility on GBPUSD (and of course on all GBP pairs), coupled with fast bearish and bullish movements.



Dominant bias: Bearish   

The expectation of a bearish USDJPY pair for the month of August eventually materialized; and so was the bearish outlook on some other JPY pairs. From August 19 – 24, price plummeted by 800 pips, going briefly below the demand level at 116.50. Since then, price has been making a noteworthy bullish recovery - a movement of 500 pips. Should the price move further upwards by another 200 pips this week, the bearish outlook would be rendered ineffectual. However, an upward movement of 200 pips could be difficult to achieve because it is expected that most JPY pairs would be bearish for most of the time in the month of September (with a few exceptions); and USDJPY would not be different.



Dominant bias: Bearish  

Owing to the strength in Yen, which was already anticipated, EURJPY fell sharply, resulting in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern. Though there is an ongoing struggle between bull and bear, price was able to attain the demand zone at 135.50 last week, in a downward movement of 300 pips. The demand zone at 135.50 was battered several times without being permanently penetrated. That demand zone ought to be breached this week or next so that the bearish bias can continue to make sense.      


This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


“The market provides the greatest opportunity on earth for financial reward. It also teaches great lessons… It is the greatest game on earth.” – Mark Minervini (a trading legend)