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Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (May 9 - 13, 2016)

May 07, 2016 09:57 am
analyst75 User

გვერდები: 128
გაწევრიანდა: 22/11/2014

Here’s the market outlook for the week:



Dominant bias: Neutral

EURUSD went upwards on Monday and Tuesday, topping at 1.1615. Since then, price has come down by over 200 pips, closing at 1.1403 on Friday. It is clear that the gains made by bulls have been erased by bears, but the bias on the market would not really turn bearish until price goes below the support line at 1.1300. That is exactly what is expected this week: The outlook on EUR is bearish and the currency would be weakened against other majors. By the end of this week, there could be a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on EURUSD.    



Dominant bias: Bullish  

Between Monday and Tuesday, this pair dipped into the support level at 0.9450. From that support level, further dip was rejected as price assumed a clean northwards movement, closing on Friday, above the support level at 0.9700. That was a movement of over 280 pips! This week, the market area to be attacked first would the resistance level at 0.9750, after which bulls would carry their battle towards other resistance levels at 0.9800 and 0.9850. The bullishness on USDCHF ought to have become more conspicuous by the end of this week.       



Dominant bias: Bullish

Here, bulls managed to push price towards the distribution territory at 1.4750 – a juncture at which they were overpowered by bears.  Price has come down 320 pips since then, closing below the distribution territory at 1.4450. What next? Since the outlook on USD is bright for this week, GBPUSD might have some difficulties going upwards (although that is not an impossibility). On the other hand, GBP would be strong in its own right, and it may be seen going upwards versus other currencies like EUR, AUD, and NZD.



Dominant bias: Bearish

This currency trading instrument simply consolidated throughout last week, though in the context of a downtrend. The possible direction on USDJPY is ambiguous for this week. We might see bears pushing the pair further southward; whereas it is a probability that could be frustrated by expected stamina in USD. The monthly outlook on JPY pairs is bearish till around the end of the May, when they might rally.          



Dominant bias: Bearish

Last week, this cross also behaved almost similarly to USDJPY. There were fleeting upwards and downwards swings on the cross, while the bias remained bearish. This week, we could see further bearish movement on the cross, which might take price below the demand zones at 121.50 and 121.00. Since the current outlook on JPY pairs is bearish and EUR is also expected to be weakened, EURJPY should decline further.       


This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


I was born in San Juan City, Argentina. It is very close to the Andes Mountains. I have a degree in Business Administration. I've always been interested in trading, but what really forced my hand, and made me absolutely need to become a full-time trader, was a conversation I once had with a professor. When he learned I was experimenting with different automated trading algorithms, he laughed and told me I was a fool to think I could beat the market. Challenge accepted! From that moment, I became a trader!”- Maximiliano Lepez (Source: