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Yearly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (2016)

Jan 02, 2016 10:12 pm
analyst75 User

Antworten: 128
Member since: 22/11/2014

Here’s the market outlook for the year:



Long-term bias: Bearish 

EURUSD was generally bearish in 2015, reaching a low of 1.0462 and a high of 1.1712.  The last week of that year was bearish, and the bearishness could continue till February 2016. From February to April, we would witness serious bullish effort, which would be eased at the end of April, because bears would come in again and make their presence felt in the market from April to June. However, a new lease of bullish journey would be resumed in the market around October/November, which would last till the end of the year (it would even go beyond the year, into 2017, ending around February 2017). The ongoing bias is now bearish and this should be honored. 



Long-term bias: Bullish

Since the large pullback that was seen in January 2015, USDCHF has been making perpetual effort to go upwards. Along the way, there were occasional instances of medium-term bearish phases in the market. The bearish phases would last for few weeks or months, only for price to recover and go up higher. In 2016, there could be intermittent phases of weakness in January. Then the market would most likely show further weakness in the months of February to April; but we can witness a smooth rally in the months of April to June. Right now, price is making attempts to go up, and it could reach the resistance levels at 1.0100 and 1.0150 in the first full week of January.   



Long-term bias: Bearish  

The short-term, the medium-term, and the long-term biases on GBPUSD are all bearish. Price reached a low of 1.4565 and a high of 1.5929 in the year 2015. Since June 2015, price has come down by 1100 pips, closing at 1.4732 on December 31, 2015. The year 2014 saw far more predictable movements on GBPUSD than the year 2015 (as it was true of other major pairs and crosses). This year might be different. At the present, the bias on the GBPUSD (and other GBP pairs) is bearish and this would continue till March 2016. The market could rally between March and May of this year. It could even continue to rally in June and July; but not without visible gravity attempts from the bears. Following this, there might not be another serious weakness in the market until December 2016.  



Long-term bias: Bearish   

On this pair, bears won a pyrrhic victory in the year 2015. The struggle between bears and bulls were so intense that the market phases for that year were mostly consolidations and fake-out phases. The year 2014 was even better than the year 2015. The current bias is bearish, but bulls might gain upper hands before the end of January; plus their victory could last till June (though not with occasional pullbacks along the way). The market might go through some phases of weakness within July and September. Nevertheless, the bulls would push the price higher around October – an action that could last till December.         



Long-term bias: Bearish

Last year, the EURJPY cross was characterized by high volatility, choppy movements and deadly struggles between bulls and bears. The extant weakness might continue till February, when price would be strengthened till April 2016. The best action to take in the market would be to seek shorting opportunities between April and September. Additionally, the market might rally from September to November; while we would witness another phases of choppy and volatile movements in December 2016.   


This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


“You will have to stick to your process as much as you can even when things do not go as expected. If you can build such a process and manage to follow it 100 per cent of the time, then you will be trading like a professional.” – Pierre Veyret