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What’s your winning probability?

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Dec 20, 2011 10:05 am
#1

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Зарегистрирован: 16/03/2011

Forex Coach Ezekiel Chew ask: What’s your winning probability?

FOREX COACH Ezekiel Chew ask: What’s your Winning Probability?

Do you have the answer to this question?

If you don’t, then probably you should NOT even trade.

It is a very simple question that you should ask yourself before you take every trade.

“WHAT IS MY WINNING PROBABILITY FOR THIS TRADE? “

If it is anything lesser than 60%, skip the trade.

You see it makes no sense at all for you to take a trade that has lesser than a 60% chance of winning.

If it’s lesser than a 50% chance of winning, why even trade?

You are bound to lose on that trade right?

If it is a 50% chance of winning. You are betting on your luck.

That’s gambling, that is NOT trading.

If it is a 60% or higher chance of winning. And if you only take trades that have a 60% or higher chance of winning.

Where do you think your account size will go? UP of course.

Forex Coach Ezekiel Chew ask: What’s your winning probability?

Having a 60% and higher winning probability for that trade means you have an edge over the market.

You SHOULD consistently take trades that are over 60% chance of winning.

But if on occasions where you take a trade that is a 50% chance of winning.

You will spoil your entire game and your entire trading plan.

That is because you are adding a random variable to your trades.

And these random variables will disrupt your account growth.

For example:

Trader A) Out of 20 trades, he take trades that are only 60% or higher winning probability.

Trader B) Out of 20 trades, he takes 10 trades that are of 60% or higher winning probability and 10 trades of lesser than 60% winning probability.

Trader C) Out of 20 trades, he doesn’t care about the winning probability. He just take trades when he likes it or just based on his gut feel.

Forex Coach Ezekiel Chew ask: What’s your winning probability?

Which trader do you think has a better chance of growing his forex account?

Trader A of course!

Which trader trades most like you?

If you are at trader B or trader C stage, you should stop your trading now.

And reflect on this.

This vital question is something that you must ask yourself the next time you trade.

“What is my winning probability for this trade?”

Forex Coach: Ezekiel Chew

Asia #1 Forex Mentor from www.asiaforexmentor.com

A complete professional forex trading system that even newbies can apply instantly. Asia Forex Mentor's forex course is now FREE!

Dec 22, 2011 04:33 pm
ironical User

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Nice article.. one similar topic is in general discussion but it is not as detailed as urs.

The good or ill of a man lies within his own will. – Epictetus

Dec 28, 2011 09:50 am

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Зарегистрирован: 16/03/2011

Originally posted by ironical

Nice article.. one similar topic is in general discussion but it is not as detailed as urs.

I am very thankfull to you for appreciating my efforts.

A complete professional forex trading system that even newbies can apply instantly. Asia Forex Mentor's forex course is now FREE!

Feb 23, 2012 04:12 am
Jogi User

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A good statistical analysis

Feb 25, 2012 04:21 am
illiterate User

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Winning probability concept allows us to avoid reckless trading. If we implement this concept in our trading style, it will help us to improve our patience skill.

Feb 27, 2012 12:47 pm
Jogi User

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Originally posted by illiterate

Winning probability concept allows us to avoid reckless trading. If we implement this concept in our trading style, it will help us to improve our patience skill.

Yes. This concept gives a new direction to traders.

Feb 29, 2012 03:32 pm
Champ User

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How do you measure winning probability of a trade?

Mar 17, 2012 04:36 am

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Originally posted by Champ

How do you measure winning probability of a trade?

Whichever method u use for trading can be used to measure winning probability.

Stick to your rules

Mar 17, 2012 07:10 am
arbus User

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Originally posted by Champ

How do you measure winning probability of a trade?

It is not possible to work it out per trade.  As you never know for sure which way the market will go.

You need to know overall probablity, as you can lose 9 times out of 10 and still make a profit.

You can analyze your history something like this..

(number of winning trades * profit per trade) / (number of losing trades * loss per trade)

Realisticly you need to be trading for long enough to get good data.  you especially need to know the expectancy of a loss.

That is probably the no 1 reason newby's fail.  They dont have the data.  Even trading demo's will give you good data.

Mar 30, 2012 06:11 am
cees User

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god trading strategy would keep the profits rolling

Jul 07, 2012 03:38 pm

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There is no surety because this is forex trading and when i place the order even i was not sure at that time how much i gonna make profit here and i am just happy with small profit too.

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